Blog
03.2026

Q1 in Review: People First. From Inception.

People First. From Inception.

We entered 2026 saying this would be the year AI proves its economics – and Q1 delivered.

It’s been a milestone quarter at Mayfield. Four portfolio companies hit unicorn status. Ten raised follow-on funding. We welcomed a new investor. And we launched the Mayfield AI Garage to bring builders together in person.

At Mayfield, we’re investing $3B in AI and seeing waves of innovation from our companies across what Jensen Huang calls the AI 5-Layer Cake, especially at the infrastructure layer.

AI: A Five-Layer Cake

What I’m most energized by is our Mayfield founders – their deep domain expertise, insatiable drive to solve hard problems, and building durable companies that compound.

Here’s what shaped our Q1 2026.

TOP NEWS

  • Four Companies Hit Unicorn Status. This quarter, four Mayfield portfolio companies crossed the $1B valuation mark: Upscale AI, Frore Systems, Rhoda AI, and SambaNova. Each represents a different layer of the AI stack – networking, thermal infrastructure, physical AI, and AI compute platforms. What they share is a common thread: category-defining founders solving problems that only get harder as AI scales.
  • We welcomed Matt Carbonara to the Mayfield Family. We’re excited to welcome Matt Carbonara to our investment team. He brings deep AI and enterprise experience and brings exactly the kind of judgment, conviction, and People First values we look for.
  • Celebrated 30 Years of the Stanford Mayfield Fellows Program. We recently celebrated the 30th anniversary with nearly 200 Mayfield Fellows, both alumni and current students. The program reflects our core belief: great people, given the right environment and mentorship, will go on to do extraordinary things.
  • Build the Future of AI: Mayfield AI Garage at HumanX + Berkeley. The Mayfield AI Garage continued to expand its reach, bringing together founders at HumanX, and UC Berkeley for our second year. As a launchpad for AI builders, we meet founders wherever they are in their journey and help them take their ideas to the next level.

PORTFOLIO NEWS

  • The $30T Physical AI Market: Why We Backed Rhoda AI. Lab robots are theater. Factory robots are a business. But don’t sell a robot. Rhoda’s Co-founder and CEO Jagdeep Singh has built seven companies. He’s not trying to boil the ocean on day one with general-purpose humanoids. With a $450M Series A, Rhoda is starting with manufacturing and logistics – environments that are structured enough to scale, but complex enough to demand their proprietary approach.
  • AI’s Next Bottleneck Is Networking: Upscale AI. AI’s next bottleneck isn’t compute. It’s networking. Upscale AI announced a $200M Series A and reached unicorn status in under six months from inception. They’re building the first full-stack, open AI-native networking platform spanning silicon, systems, and software. This is our third time partnering with founders Barun Kar and Rajiv Khemani.
  • Why Thermodynamics is the New Frontier of AI Infrastructure: Frore Systems. AI infrastructure is scaling at an extraordinary speed. As AI clusters grow denser, something fundamental changes: Performance is no longer just about compute. It is now about thermodynamics. Frore announced a $143M Series D at a $1.64B valuation, and their AI Thermal Stack, an integrated architecture managing heat from chip to atmosphere. We’re proud to have backed Seshu Madhavapeddy, Suryaprakash Ganti, and the Frore team since their founding in 2018 through Series D.
  • Why Marketing Needs Its Own Claude Code: Introducing Kana. Engineers have Claude Code. Marketers deserve the same. The marketer of the future will lead with vision, taste, and judgment – agents will handle everything in between. Kana announced a $15M seed round led by Mayfield to build a suite of agents for modern marketers. Co-founders Tom Chavez and Vivek Vaidya have spent 26 years building category-defining companies together, including Krux (acquired by Salesforce for $1B).
  • 10 Companies Raised Over $1B in Follow-On Funding. The portfolio continues to attract strong follow-on capital, with ten companies closing rounds in Q1 2026.

OUR AI POV

This quarter, we published a series of deep dives on where AI is heading. Here are the key themes and what founders should take away:

  • Physical AI: The Era of Labor as a Service. The LLM era automated cognition. The Physical AI era automates labor. What I’m calling Labor as a Service (LaaS) targets every manual, repetitive, and hazardous task in the real economy – a $30 trillion market. The near-term winners will start in industrial automation: warehousing, food processing, construction, and agriculture. Read our strategy playbook for Physical AI founders.
  • The OpenClaw Ecosystem. OpenClaw, the fastest-growing open-source project in history, is like Linux for agents. When Linux took off, the value accrued to many companies in the ecosystem built around it. The same dynamic is playing out now with OpenClaw, and the CLAW Stack is emerging. There will be many opportunities for companies, both big and small, in the OpenClaw ecosystem.
  • An Optimist’s View on Claude Code. The next decade won’t be defined by general chat interfaces. It will be defined by AI embedded invisibly within how work actually gets done by domain- and vertical-specific agents.
  • What Claude Code Can (and Can’t) Replace. Hundreds of AI agent startups have been funded. But with Claude Code commoditizing code and Claude Cowork turning agentic work into a platform feature, the real question is: what’s actually defensible?
  • The 1000X Stacked Exponential AI Era. We’ve moved from the predictable, linear gains of Moore’s Law to a world of stacked AI exponentials, where multiple curves in hardware, algorithms, data, and scale are compounding into 1000X capability curves simultaneously.
  • An Optimist’s View of SaaS. SaaS isn’t dying. Complacency is. The future belongs to outcome-first companies. We are moving from systems of record to systems of intelligence to systems of work. From software that helps you do the work to software that does the work for you. We are entering a new era of Work-as-a-Service (what I am calling WaaS).
  • Follow the Money: Enterprise AI’s Trillion-Dollar Moment. 91% of enterprises are increasing spending on AI agents in 2026, and 56% are shifting budget away from legacy vendors toward AI-native startups. Go deeper into our survey data and what founders need to build, sell, and scale to capture a bigger piece of that trillion-dollar pie.
  • VC Industry Outlook: Winner-Takes-Most. The 2025 VC data is in. $339.4B in deal value, but 50% of that capital went to just 0.05% of deals. VC fundraising hit its lowest level in a decade. Read five takeaways every founder needs to internalize.
  • 2026 Forbes AI 50 & Brink List for AI startups. Mayfield is proud to be the sponsoring partner with Forbes for this year’s AI 50 and the inaugural Brink List featuring 25 rising stars in AI. The Brink List is an extension of our philosophy to celebrate people. We want to spotlight the founders who are building the future of AI.
  • The future CMO is an Architect – designing systems that compound advantage rather than managing output. The last generation of CMOs ran campaigns. The next generation CMOs architect learning systems, govern brand and trust, align revenue, and lead agents the way a creative director leads a team.

AI PREDICTIONS CHECK

At the start of the year, I shared my AI predictions. Here’s how Q1 tracked:

  • Rise of tiny-team unicorns: Validated. OpenClaw is becoming Linux for agents, enabling a single-person team to build what once required hundreds of engineers.
  • Physical AI leaves the lab: Validated. Rhoda AI is deploying on real factory floors, not running demos.
  • Energy becomes the bottleneck: Validated. Frore’s unicorn-scale round addresses the physical constraints capping AI performance.
  • Ads follow into AI interfaces: Validated. OpenAI and other platforms are beginning to integrate advertising models.

AI is moving from models to infrastructure, from demos to deployment, and from hype to economics. The founders who win this era will be the ones solving the hard problems that make AI work in production and enable AI to scale.

Originally published on LinkedIn.

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